Programme Leader: Nick Cradock-Henry

The problem: Rising sea levels, shifting rainfall patterns and more frequent and intense storms – climate change is already driving up costs and damages across Aotearoa New Zealand. While we have the science to understand these risks, we are struggling to act at the speed and scale needed. Adaptation plans and policies exist, but progress is slow. As climate change impacts intensify, urgent action is essential.

The solution: This programme will help close the gap between planning and action. Working with local communities, hapū/iwi and other stakeholders, to identify what’s holding up adaptation, we will design effective ways to address them. We will combine cutting-edge adaptation and behavioural science with economics, engineering, and real-world case studies to help communities, businesses, and governments make informed decisions that deliver benefits for New Zealand.

“Aotearoa New Zealand is at a critical turning point for adapting to climate change impacts – if we act now, we can reduce the risks of climate change and unlock new economic opportunities for future growth. Our programme will focus on developing practical, locally-relevant tools and strategies that are effective in the long-term,” says Programme Lead Nick Cradock-Henry.  

This highly collaborative programme will work alongside communities and policymakers to develop solutions that allow New Zealand to lead the world in adaptation efforts, making us more prepared and prosperous in the face of climate change.

Collaborators: Bioeconomy Science Institute, Cawthron Institute, Urban Intelligence, University of Auckland, PDP, the Aotearoa Society of Adaptation Professionals and other national and international collaborators (USA, Australia, Spain and Germany). Science advisory and stakeholder panels with leading adaptation researchers and practitioners from central government, local government, iwi and industry will enhance uptake and implementation.  

The programme has been awarded $11,987,998.00 through the Endeavour Fund to be conducted over a term of five years.

The Accelerating Adaptation programme is designed to close New Zealand’s adaptation gap by identifying barriers to action and testing interventions that reduce the costs of climate impacts, enhance resilience, and support a prosperous society. Grounded in systems innovation and living labs with frontline practitioners, the programme will be delivered through three inter-linked components and a stakeholder forum to share and learn from real-life examples. Credit: Earth Sciences New Zealand

Programme Co-Leaders: Cliff Law and Scott Nodder

The problem:  Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal (mCDR) techniques are attracting considerable interest and investment worldwide, but many are still at the theoretical and laboratory-scale and need to be verified and monitored to ensure they are effective and also environmentally safe.

The solution: This programme will test three potential carbon removal techniques by studying the natural equivalents of these approaches that occur in nature. The programme will include research voyages to study the alkalinity input from rivers that captures carbon dioxide, wood deposition on the seabed following Cyclone Gabrielle and carbon transfer to the deep ocean following natural phytoplankton blooms.

Programme co-lead  Dr Cliff Law says there is increasing interest in marine carbon removal in New Zealand, but many factors need to be considered before techniques are ready for deployment at scale. “Implementation would have ramifications across environmental, socio-economic, cultural and geopolitical spheres, and so we need to create a comprehensive mCDR assessment framework incorporating models, tools and protocols to support decision-making and regulation.”

Collaborators: This multi-disciplinary team will bring experienced practitioners in mCDR and marine carbon cycling from around the world. Early career researchers in marine ecology, biogeochemistry and ocean technology will also drive the programme’s outputs.

University of Otago, Ngāti Kahungunu Iwi Incorporated, University of Auckland, University of Canterbury, Auckland University of Technology, Instituto Español De Oceanografia (IEO), Centro Oceanográfico De Gijón, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation,  University of Tasmania, Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer, Florida State University, University of Antwerp, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre For Ocean Research, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Dalhousie University, [C]Worthy, Traverse Environmental and Victoria University of Wellington.

The programme has been awarded $11,020,000 through the Endeavour Fund to be conducted over a term of five years.

Cliff Law collecting surface water samples on RV Tangaroa. Credit: Earth Sciences NZ

Programme Co-Leaders: Isabelle Chambefort and Saeid Jalilinasrabady

The problem: New Zealand’s electricity demand is projected to rise by 82% by 2050. At the same time, rising costs and dependence on imported fuels and intermittency energy generation are creating energy insecurity. While wind, solar, and conventional geothermal are vital, they cannot alone provide the reliable, affordable, and low-carbon baseload power required. To secure our energy future, New Zealand must pursue new options for round-the-clock renewable generation.

The solution: Superhot geothermal energy offers a transformative opportunity. By tapping into reservoirs deeper in the Central Taupō Volcanic Zone, we could unlock around 30,000 GWh of continuous renewable power each year. Realising this potential requires new knowledge at the frontier of science and engineering. Our DeepHeat Programme will address this challenge by investigating how superhot fluids move at depth at the interface between magma and rocks, developing AI-driven reservoir models, conducting fracture network experiments, and assessing wellbore performance. We will also advance stimulation and well-integration technologies, evaluate energy and economic scenarios, establish environmental monitoring frameworks, and co-design Māori-led business models to ensure long-term sustainable benefits.

"These outputs are parallel to the government’s $60 million drilling programme and the renaissance of geothermal exploration in New Zealand. They strengthen our chance to achieve a fast global development of superhot geothermal, setting New Zealand as the ideal international test bed location,” says co-lead scientist Isabelle Chambefort.

 "Superhot geothermal could redefine New Zealand’s energy system. By advancing the science of fluid movement in extreme conditions, we can unlock a world-first clean energy source that strengthens energy security, accelerates decarbonisation, and positions New Zealand as a global leader in sustainable innovation,” says co-lead scientist Saeid Jalilinasrabady.

 Collaborators: Our team brings together leading researchers from Earth Sciences New Zealand, Victoria University of Wellington, and the University of Auckland. The programme will work alongside a wider network of scientists, engineers, AI experts, and Māori advisors, as well as international partners from the USA, Switzerland, Japan, and Iceland. Collaboration will be strengthened through hui, joint work with drillers, well designers and engineers, and a dedicated publication hub to ensure results are shared openly and widely.

The programme has been awarded $10,690,000 through the Endeavour Fund to be conducted over a term of five years.

For more information visit here.

The DeepHeat programme will zone into how to harness energy deeper hotter conditions in support of the New Zealand Government’s exploration programme. Credit: Earth Sciences NZ

Programme Co-Leaders: Daniel Leduc, Joshu Mountjoy and Carolyn Lundquist

The problem: Offshore wind farms are being explored in New Zealand as an additional source of renewable energy, but the impact on the surrounding environment needs to be understood to generate greater confidence in the sustainability of offshore development and maximising the benefits for New Zealand.

The solution: This programme will greatly accelerate efficient and accurate assessments of the impacts on New Zealand’s unique marine fauna and habitats around these proposed developments, specifically focusing on potential offshore wind developments in the Taranaki and Auckland/Waikato regions. This groundbreaking research project will employ leading expertise in ecosystem modelling, cutting-edge implementation strategies and a visionary approach rooted in mātauranga Māori.

Co-principal investigator, Dr Daniel Leduc says that typically, marine stressor-impact relationships have been studied through many years of data collection followed by lengthy modelling. “Our approach flips traditional methodology on its head by developing artificial intelligence objective-driven models first and using their outputs to design field campaigns that are optimised to produce the knowledge we need. The end result will be faster and more reliable assessments of impacts on marine taonga species and habitats.”

Co-principal investigator, Dr Joshu Mountjoy says evaluation and monitoring the impacts of offshore wind on marine ecosystems is important, but it is expensive and time-consuming. “Offshore wind energy could add billions to GDP over the next 20 years, but communities need to know what the impacts might be in areas where wind development hasn’t yet occurred.”

Collaborators: University of Otago, Eidgenössische Technische, Hochschule Zürich, The Finnish Environment Institute, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, BECA, Griffith University, Oregon State University, University of California, Sumitomo Corporation, Far Out Oceanic Research Collective Charitable Trust, Tidal Research Limited, Massey University and Farallon Institute.

The programme has been awarded $11,000,000 through the Endeavour Fund to be conducted over a term of five years.

Marine Biologist Daniel Leduc taking sediment samples containing marine fauna.

Programme Co-Leaders: Anna Kaiser, Bill Fry and Jen Andrews

The problem: Forecasting impacts from local earthquakes, most notably tsunamis, has long been a challenge. Current methods, based on earthquake magnitude and location alone, cannot capture the complex dynamics of local events, leaving critical uncertainties in the speed, size and reach of resulting tsunami waves. With little time between a nearby earthquake and a tsunami reaching shore, the need for faster, more accurate warning systems is critical.

The solution: The Next-generation early warning: Forecasting tsunami and multi-hazard impacts as local earthquakes strike research programme is set to transform New Zealand’s ability to forecast the impacts of locally generated earthquakes and tsunamis. The project brings together national and international experts to deliver the science solutions for early warnings tailored to Aotearoa’s unique tectonic and societal setting.

The programme builds on the foundational real-time science advances developed under the Rapid Characterisation of Earthquake and Tsunami programme, which has enabled opportunities to explore the challenging next-generation science problems posed by local earthquakes.

The new programme will harness advanced techniques – such as machine learning, multi-data analysis, and rapid earthquake characterisation tools – alongside emerging monitoring technologies like low-cost sensors, satellite-based ionospheric geodesy and quantum methods applied to seafloor fibre-optic cables. Together, these innovations will strengthen New Zealand’s onshore earthquake and offshore tsunami monitoring and help provide decision-makers with vital situational awareness of both shaking and inundation impacts.

By providing hazard-to-impact early warning science for local events for the first time, the programme aims to reduce loss of life, strengthen resilience, and build public confidence in New Zealand’s emergency management system.

“Our goal is to deliver the next generation of early warning capability for New Zealand. By combining data from multiple sources in real time, we can better anticipate how earthquakes and tsunamis will impact communities, giving emergency managers the best possible information to guide life- and loss-saving decisions,"  says programme lead and Earth Sciences NZ Science seismologist Dr Anna Kaiser.

Collaborators: The programme will be co-designed with end-users including the National Emergency Management Agency to ensure the research translates directly into operational tools. We will also work with New Zealand universities and international leaders in early warning systems and emerging technologies from the US, Europe and the Pacific, including NOAA, National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, ETH Zürich, Sapienza University, and the UK National Physical Laboratory. The advances will also find their way into global early warning science through collaboration with the UNESCO Pacific Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System, so we can help our Pacific partners as well as our own communities at risk from tsunami.

The programme has been awarded $12,384,821 through the Endeavour Fund to be conducted over a term of five years.

The dynamic and interconnected local earthquake and tsunami process and the sensor networks available to provide multi-data analysis for forecasting their real-time impacts. Credit: Earth Sciences New Zealand